We are now two months removed from the 2026 NFL Draft, and now that OTAs have begun, we are beginning to get our first returns of those who were selected over those three days in April. For this post however, I just want to focus on the first round and ask a very simple question:

“Which 1st round pick will have the best season in 2026?”

I’ve given this a lot of thought, and there are a few answers you could go with. It would be easy enough to say Fernando Mendoza or Jeremiyah Love, and I almost did. Two players at high-impact positions on teams with a lot of room for improvement. Don’t get me wrong, I think both will have great seasons. Love was arguably the best player in the entire draft, and I actually believe the Cardinals have more pieces already in place than their 3-14 record would lead you to believe. Similarly, I believe Mendoza can help Las Vegas take a massive leap forward. I believe that Klint Kubiak will do great things with the team, and it already seems like the culture is shifting for the better. It’s also been reported that Mendoza has a firm grasp of the playbook already. Combine that with Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, and I expect the Raiders to leap into relevance. Playoffs? Not in that loaded division, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Vegas to double their 3-win total from 2025…or better. I think 7 wins is realistic.

Defensively, I think four players could have good years. The New York Giants are already an exciting team going into next season under head coach John Harbaugh, and the selection of Arvell Reese at #5 is another reason. A linebacking core that features both Abdul Carter and Reese could electric. Speaking of Ohio State linebackers, Sonny Styles could have a big year under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. Washington is already a team that, if healthy, has already proven that it can contend, and Styles is viewed as one of the biggest difference makers in this draft.

One of the more obvious answers to this question, at least to some people, would be Caleb Downs, an electric safety with versatility and quickness, headed to a Dallas team that needs a defensive upgrade. Mansoor Delane to the Kansas City Chiefs at 8 as the best corner in the draft feels like a clear contender, although ironically, Delane being comped to Trent McDuffie – the very corner Kansas City traded away and subsequently needed to replace – is laughable.

One final player I want to shout out before I get to my REAL answer is Keylan Rutledge. The 6-foot-3, 316lb OG selected by the Houston Texans at 26. It’s no secret that Houston needed to prioritize protecting CJ Stroud, and Rutledge is relentless. However, as it can often be difficult to accurately quantify offensive line play, this is not my pick.

Okay – now it’s time for my real answer. After going through the entire first round draft order, one name kept popping into my head. One player that I think is an answer to a need that his team has had for years and a huge asset to a quarterback who is already showing the ability to be the leader his team needs.

One player: Carnell Tate.

If pressed, I’d say that I expect the Tennessee Titans to take the biggest leap of any team in 2026. Maybe I’m giving the Titans and Cam Ward too much credit, but he showed flashes of why he was the 2025 first overall pick with NO weapons. Ward needed Tate. Since trading away AJ Brown, the Titans have been desperate for another #1 receiver. They went all in on Traylon Burks and that was a disaster. They signed Calvin Ridley, and while he was serviceable, he struggled to replicate what he had done with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville before arriving to town. Tate could be the antidote. Not only does Tate give Ward and the Titans a legit downfield threat, but he could take pressure off of Ridley in that receiving corps.

But the question I asked at the beginning of this was not, ‘Which team will improve the most?’, it’s ‘Which player will have the best season?’ Regardless, my answer is the same. Reports and video from Titans camp show that Ward and Tate are already developing a nice rapport. Tate has a pretty clear path to become WR1 on a team with nowhere to go but up, paired with a quarterback with exceptional gifts, in a division with A LOT of question marks.

Again, maybe I’m giving Tate, Ward and the Titans too much credit, but I have confidence. I took a look at the NFL rookie receiving records, and while I think Puca Nacua’s 1,486 yards or Randy Moss’s 17 touchdowns may be a little out of reach, I think Brock Bowers 112 receptions is well within the realm of possibility. Outside of Ridley Tennessee WR room isn’t particularly deep, and Carnell Tate is an efficient route runner who excels at getting open and exploiting soft spots in the defense. He also is pretty good at stretching the field vertically when a play breaks down. Given that the Titans offensive line still needs work, that could happen frequently. If Cam Ward can let it fly on the run, there could be a lot of yards to be had for Tate.

Like I said, this is just a prediction, but I like what I’m seeing in Music City. Let me know in the comments which 2026 first rounder will have the best rookie season.