The Hall of Fame Game may have opened the season for the Bears and Texans a week ago, but the NFL preseason officially kicks off tonight. In honor of that, and in conjunction with the two bold prediction posts: 5 Bold Predictions for MLB 2nd Half & 5 Bold Predictions for The 2024 College Football Season, here are my predictions for the new NFL season.

Colts win the AFC South

Anyone who’s listened to the podcast in the last couple of years probably knows that I’m pretty high on the Colts. I feel like they’ve been largely overlooked, and maybe even a little disrespected by NFL analysts recently. First off, before I get too far into this, I want to firmly acknowledge that the 2022 Matt Ryan-Jeff Saturday season was a disaster. Ironically, it’s the 2021 Carson Wentz season that NFL fans want to misremember as the disaster. Carson Wentz did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do that season: hand the ball off to NFL leading rusher Jonathan Taylor and don’t make mistakes. With 27 TDs and 7 INTs with a 210 yards/game average, he more than did his job. Wentz deserves more credit than he gets for that season, and I will die on that hill! They were 1 win away from a wildcard berth. People forget that. Fast forward to last season, and the Colts were 3 yards from winning the AFC South WITH backup QB Gardner Minshew under center.

With all that said, I’m riding with the Colts in 2024. Much of the roster is still intact from that 2021 season, plus they have a re-vamped receiving corps that includes Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce, alongside veteran Michael Pittman Jr. Plus, I believe that NFL-leading tackler Zaire Franklin and EJ Speed gives Indy one of the league’s best linebacker tandems.

I know it’s an unpopular pick, with the ascendance of CJ Stroud as an MVP candidate, and the big money Trevor Lawrence just got, but all reports from camp are that Anthony is not only healthy but has taken a massive leap forward from a rookie year where he only played 4 games due to injury. If they can win 9 games with Minshew, I expect this team to take the next step with a healthy Richardson. Conservatively, I don’t see why this team can’t win at least 12 games. It helps that Indy is tied with Tennesse for the easiest schedule in the division (21st SOS overall), as well as the division favorite Texans, led by the aforementioned C.J. Stroud, having the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL. I’m riding with Indy in 2024 – heck of a way to start bold predictions, huh?

Sam Darnold wins Most Improved Player

Before you say it, I’m there with you – the NFL doesn’t give out a Most Improved Player award. The closest thing they have is Comeback Player of the Year, and as of this coming season, Darnold can’t win it. The criteria have been changed after Damar Hamlin escaped death, just to lose the award to 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who survived…the Jets. As a result, the league changed the rules to give the award to someone who “…has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.” This disqualifies Darnold and any other player who just had a bad season from winning. So, the NFL doesn’t have a Most Improved Player award, but the Pro Football Writers of America do.

I think Sam Darnold has gotten a bad rap so far in his career. Coming out of USC in 2018, Darnold was labeled by many as the most pro-ready prospect. But then he was sentenced to spend his first five seasons with the Jets and Panthers, prompting many to call him a bust, but let’s be honest, I’m not sure there’s a quarterback in the league that could’ve helped those two franchises at the time. He spent last season as the backup to Brock Purdy in San Francisco, but the one game he started, he passed for nearly 300 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last season, even as a backup, was the first year that Sam Darnold was on a team with good coaching and formidable weapons. Now, being in Minnesota, Darnold is QB1 at the moment, with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. It remains to be seen if rookie J.J. McCarthy will see the field this year, but I believe Sam Darnold will finally get his chance to shine this year, hold of McCarthy and win PFWA Most Improved Player.

Green Bay Packers will miss the playoffs

I’ll say it right now, I’m not as high on Jordan Love and the Packers as everyone else. I don’t necessarily agree with the Packers making him the highest paid QB in the NFL (tied with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence) after one year. Yes, he’s going into his 5th season, but he’s effectively a 2nd-year quarterback. It’s not that I don’t believe he’s good, I just don’t think he’s earned it yet. Yes, he went on an absolute tear over the final 8 regular season games, passing for 18 TDs and only 1 INT in that span, but I don’t think it’s a big enough sample size for $55 million a year. But these days, making someone the highest-paid player at their position is less about achievements in the league as it is about making a statement, but more on that in a future article.

This prediction isn’t about Jordan Love’s contract. it’s about the team. This is a young team, full of a lot of first, second. and third year players. I’m not saying the whole roster is due for a slump or a regression, but the law of averages suggest that some will. The 2023 Packers were firing on all cylinders at the end of the season, but now the league is on alert. On top of that, the Packers play in arguably the toughest division in the league, with the Lions, Vikings and Bears (oh my) all expected to make noise in 2024. The Pack also have the 4th-toughest schedule in the league. Also, the Green Bay defense was shaky at best most of last year, and while new DC Jeff Hafley could breathe new life into the unit, he could also encounter an NFL learning curve. I know that many analysts are picking Green Bay to potentially make the Super Bowl, but I just think there’s too much working against the Packers this season, and I’m just not drinking the cheese-flavored Kool-Aid at the moment.

The New England Patriots will earn a Wild Card spot

This one is admittedly my most farfetched prediction, but, in this case, the headline doesn’t tell the whole story. I had to do something to keep you reading, right? Not only am I predicting New England to sneak into the playoffs under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, but I’m predicting that they do it with rookie 6th round pick Joe Milton III under center. Bold, I know – that’s the point – to suggest a first-year head coach is going to take a 4-win team to the playoffs with a 6th-round QB, but all reports from camp have claimed that Milton III is outplaying 3rd overall pick Drake Maye at every turn. This one is more of a gut feeling, as the Pats obviously play in a really tough division that could realistically see the other the teams all make it to the dance, but Milton III is a playmaker that could help breathe new life into a Patriots offense that was stagnant at best in the last few years with Belichick. Jerod Mayo is trying to build a new ‘Patriot Way’ that seems to be night and day when compared to the old, and it seems that the team is buying in. The Pats still, as they have in recent years, have a weakness at receiver, and until yesterday, New England seemed very much in on embattled 49ers Brandon Aiyuk, but have since backed off, saying they will not pursue a trade. Admittedly, without Aiyuk, this prediction seems way less likely, as he would’ve given the Patriots a vertical threat they desperately need. (EDIT: After completing my full standings predictions and given the fact that they’ve lost Matthew Judon and neglected to add a significant option at reciever, I know longer believe that the Patriots will sneak into a wild card spot, but there’s reason for optimism in Jerrod Mayo’s first year – I have them finishing 7-10).

Doug Pederson’s seat will get VERY hot

On the surface, this one might seem silly given that this will only be Pederson’s 3rd season in Jacksonville, they just signed their QB to one of the richest contracts in league history, and he has a Super Bowl trophy under his belt, but professional sports are a ‘what have you done for me lately’ business, and unfortunately for Pederson, the last taste the Jags left in fans’ mouths was losing 5 of the last 6 games (with the only win in that span being the only game Lawrence has missed in his career) and coughing up a pretty sizeable division lead which resulted in a winner-take-all season finale for the division crown that they we’re even a part of.

On top of that, I don’t think Trevor Lawrence has earned that behemoth contract yet, but as I said before, these large contracts are more about optics these days than actual performance. Just a couple of years ago Jags fans were wearing clown wigs and calling for GM Trent Baalke’s head, so the signing also could’ve served as job security for Baalke.

For a franchise like the Jags, whose periods of success as a franchise have been short and infrequent, it might be easy for fans to view Lawrence as the franchise QB or savior of the franchise, but the fact is, he may not be. We all know how maligned Mac Jones and Daniel Jones have been in their short careers, but what if I told you, that Lawrence has been keeping up with the Joneses? Trevor Lawrence has a 20-30 career record (Mac Jones – 18-24; Daniel Jones 22-37-1). Lawrence has 58 TDs and 39 interceptions (M. Jones 46/36; D. Jones 62/40). Lawrence has a career completion percentage of 63.8% and a passer rating of 85. (M. Jones 66.1%/85.8; D. Jones 64.3% and 85.2). There are a million different qualifiers you could try to put here to try and justify Lawrence, but objectively the career numbers of these 3 quarterbacks are far more similar that any Jags fan would like to admit.

As recently as a year ago at this time, it looked as though Jacksonville’s window to run the AFC South was going to open for a LONG time. Fast forward 12 months and it’s Houston’s show with Indianapolis right behind him. Lawrence’s favorite target from last year is now playing for the Titans, and nothing points to the Jags taking a step forward in 2024. The once large window now appears to be closed, the franchise QB has yet to separate himself, and Pederson is just 18-16 in his tenure. If Doug Pederson doesn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat in a tough division, or T-Law doesn’t prove he deserves $55 million a year, Pederson’s seat could get very hot in The River City.

Since the NFL landscape seems to be changing by the day, (see Brandon Aiyuk and the Hurts-Sirianni situation in Philly), I do have a few more bold predictions I could’ve included in this post, so that may warrant a Part 2 – stay tuned! Until then, the preseason is officially here! Comment below to let us know your thoughts on our predictions, share predictions of your own, or give us your outlook on your favorite team. And remember – today’s a good day to go 1-0! See you on the next one.