The Rays Are Still Smart — But Smart Only Goes So Far

The Rays once again squeezed value out of their roster in 2025, but they’ve been on a steady decline since reaching the World Series in 2020. Strong pitching development, matchup creativity, and defensive versatility kept Tampa Bay competitive. But the same issue that has haunted them for years showed up again: inconsistent offense, and it cost them. Going onto play on June 29th, the Rays were a season-high 11 games over .500 at 47-36. They went 30-49 to finish 77-85 and miss the playoffs for the second straight year.

A look at Tampa’s season rankings tells the whole story – middle of the road across the board. Not too good at anything, but not too bad either. I still believe that Kevin Cash is one of the smartest managers in the game, and his ability to do more with less is reminiscent of the last few years of Mike Tomlin’s 19-year run with the Pittsburgh Steelers. With baseball 3rd-smallest payroll, the ability to make a splash is limited.

The acquisition of Gavin Lux gives them athleticism and versatility — and possibly some upside — but it doesn’t fundamentally solve the power shortage. Additionally, they lost a big piece of the rotation in Shane Baz, and who knows when Shane McClanahan will be healthy again, so adding a steady innings eater like Chris Bassitt or a veteran hurler like Max Scherzer could make a huge difference in the locker room for a young team

Biggest Need Entering 2026:
Middle-of-the-order power production. In order for a small market team like Tampa to compete in today’s MLB, they may have to Moneyball this a little bit. I believe their best bet is to sign supplementary lineup guys and hope for some magic. Guys like Chris Taylor and Randal Grichuk aren’t exciting, but Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero had great years for the Rays in 2025, and if Tampa can get that kind of production from the duo again this year, it’s the supplementary pieces like Taylor, Grichuk and Lux, could make a difference.

Speculating a little – if they Rays are still in the race come summer like they were a year ago, the biggest play could be pulling of a trade deadline deal for offensive reinforcements. Two names who are going into 2026 on one-year deals and are oft-traded in these types of situations are high-volume slugger Josh Bell (Twins) and batting title savant Luis Arraez (Giants).

Have They Addressed It? Not really. Lux helps depth, not impact. There are still moves to be made. They aren’t flashy, but then again, neither are the Rays.

Our Take:
The Rays will always compete because they’re smart and disciplined. But at some point, you need hitters who scare opposing pitchers. Until Tampa Bay commits to adding legitimate offensive firepower, they’ll continue hovering just below true championship contention.