As the 2025 MLB season crawls toward its final month, I thought it would be a fun time to look back at the early season award predictions I made back on April 28th – where I was right, where I was wrong, and the surprises and disappointments I did not see coming.

Let’s dive in!

AL MVP: (Early Season Prediction – Aaron Judge)

This is tough (maybe not to some), because, by all accounts, Aaron Judge is having another MVP-caliber season. He’s hitting .333 with 40 homers and 99 RBIs going into play on August 20th. His improvement as an all-round hitter over the last few seasons should be studied. Average up, strikeouts down. Truly a great hitter. But I’m heading into the season’s final stretch with a clear MVP front runner, and it isn’t him.

Updated Prediction: Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh has been carrying the Seattle Mariners offense on his shoulders for most of the season. He leads all of Major League baseball with 47 homers and is tops in the American League with 102 RBIs. Yes, there’s a strong case to be made that Judge should get the nod because he leads Raleigh in all other categories (including a batting average that’s almost 90 points higher), but personally, I’m giving the nod to Raleigh for a few reasons.

1) Voter fatigue. Look, I’m not normally one to say “it’s so-and-so’s turn”, but in the case of Major League baseball specifically, I feel like voting has become a popularity contest. Not that Judge isn’t great, but he’s going to continue to be great, and no one wants to see Judge win 10 straight MVPs, so when we see someone else come out of the woodwork to challenge that, we have to give them a look. 2) Raleigh is a catcher AND a switch hitter. Catching is hard. We see multiple guys switch to first base later in their careers as it becomes tougher on their bodies. Yes, Raleigh has played a few games as Seattle DH. but most days (he’s played 125 of 128 games so far this season), he’s behind home plate. Additionally, he’s a switch hitter. Why did I group those two together? Because, at 47 home runs, he has a very good chance of breaking the single season records for homers by a catcher (48 by Salvador Perez in 2021) and homers by a switch hitter (54 by Mickey Mantle in 1961). You could argue that Judge should win on numbers alone, and you won’t hear any push back from me, but what Raleigh is doing in 2025 is special and can’t be ignored. Plus, he won the home run derby while switch hitting, taking pitches from his dad, and being caught (and hyped up) by his younger brother. What’s not to like?

*Not to mention, if you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know I’m a stickler for the “V” in MVP. Of course Aaron Judge adds value to the Yankees, let’s not be ridiculous, BUT the Yankees lineup is stacked. They get contributions and long balls from every spot on the lineup card. If you removed Judge, it would certainly hurt, but they’d still be productive. New York and Seattle are currently firmly in the playoff field via Wild Card spots, but their is an argument, however small, that they Yankees could make the dance without Judge. Seattle’s offense has been anemic at times this season, needing Raleigh’s power to quite literally lift them to victory.

NL MVP: (Early Season Prediction – Fernando Tatis Jr.)

I honestly had higher hopes for Tatis coming into the year to help us avoid a Shohei Ohtani three-peat, and he’s not having a bad season by any means, but it is a down year by Tatis’ normally grand standard. In the early days of the season, it even looked like his Padres teammate Manny Machado was going to have a strong case. He too is having a really good season, which is why the Padres are where they are as a team, but when you look at the top of the statistical leaderboard, it’s really a two-horse race for MVP: Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani.

Updated Prediction: Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber has the edge in homers, doubles and RBIs, while Ohtani leads in hits, runs, stolen bases (not by as much as you’d think) and average. Much like I stated with Judge, I understand Ohtani’s greatness. It’s unparalleled. But that’s not changing anytime soon, and as I’ve mentioned before; in order to give someone consecutive MVPs – or in Ohtani’s case three straight – you should do something to top your previous performance. Is that fair? Maybe not but see voter fatigue. And in 2024, Ohtani founded the 50-50 club. I know he stated that he’d run less in 2025 as he focused on returning to the mound, but he certainly isn’t going to match last season’s insane productivity.

With both players being a part of stacked lineups, it seems that it may come down to whether the voters have voter fatigue or not…and Schwarber’s iconic performance in the All-Star Game swing off could be fresh on their minds. You never know!

AL Cy Young Award: (Early Season Prediction – Garrett Crochet)

Garrett Crochet is having an incredible season. I still have confidence in this pick. Crochet is 13-5 with a 2.43 ERA, 196 strikeouts and a K-BB ratio of 4.78. A Cy Young nod would be well-deserved. However, Houston’s Hunter Brown and Detroit’s reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal are making their STRONG cases for the honor, and this race is tight:

Pitcher	W	L	ERA	IP	Ks	WHIP	OPP AVG
G. Crochet	13	5	2.43	159.1	196	1.07	.219
T. Skubal	11	3	2.32	159.1	200	0.87	.197
H. Brown	10	5	2.36	149.0	170	1.01	.199

This race will truly come down to the season’s last month, but side-by side numbers do seem to give the edge to Skubal for the second straight year.

Updated Prediction: Tarik Skubal

One important thing to keep in mind: this time last year, Skubal was the standout star of the surprise team in the AL playoff picture. Fast forward 12 months and he’s the superstar ace of one of the best teams in baseball. Will that give him the edge? Only time will tell, but I think it will.

NL Cy Young Award: (Early Season Prediction – Shota Imanaga)

I’ll make this one quick: Shota Imanaga is by no means having a bad season for the Cubs (8-5, 3.06 ERA, 0.95 WHIP), but he’s missed some time with injury, and has been outperformed on his own by Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea.

If it weren’t for one man, I’d be screaming for the NL Cy Young to go to Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez. He’s been unbelievable. But…..

Updated Prediction: Paul Skenes

This one’s a no-brainer, right? Skenes is the darling of Major League Baseball. “Skenes Day” excitement isn’t just limited to the Pittsburgh area. He’s set the whole league on fire. Skenes may only be 7-9, but we can blame Pittsburgh’s offense. He’s gotten two or less runs of support 9 times. The Pirates offense is obviously terrible, which has been a point of frustration for me for the last year plus, but they have played better baseball since the All-Star Break (and by “better”, I mean 14-16), averaging more than 0.5 runs more per game. Exhilarating, right? Point being, if the Buccos ownership would un-clinch the purse strings and address the offense, PNC would soar, but that’s a whole different post…

Skenes has the league’s best ERA by a full 12 points, 3rd in the NL in strikeouts and 3rd in WHIP with a measly 0.96, trailing Zach Wheeler and Nick Pivetta at the top by just a couple of ticks. Additionally, he’s holding opposing batters to a microscopic average of .198. Paul Skenes IS dominance, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t get the nod. Two All-Star starts at a Cy Young Award at 23? Can’t wait to see what the rest of his career has in store.

AL Rookie of the Year: (Early Season Prediction – Shane Smith)

Admittedly, I was off on this one. As I said in my first post, my original choice was Boston’s Roman Anthony, but at the time of posting, he had yet to debut, so I pivoted to White Sox pitcher Shane Smith who impressed me in his first couple career starts. The rest of his year hasn’t gone great, but his numbers aren’t horrible when you consider that he plays for the White Sox. He’s 3-7 with a 4.12 ERA, 102 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. Again, not great, certainly not good enough to win ROY honors, but I don’t hate those ERA or strikeout numbers for a rookie in a tough division on a bad team. I think he would make a very good number 3 or 4 starter on a contending team. But that’s not what this post is about.

Updated Prediction: Nick Kurtz

While Roman Anthony has played well for Boston since his debut, he didn’t debut until June 9th, so he just hasn’t been around long enough.

I want to talk about Nick Kurtz. Nick Kurtz is a beast. It can be easily forgotten because of their record or all the drama with their apathetic owner who shall not be named, but the Athletics have a bunch of good players who provide significant production, all aged 30 or younger. Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz to name a few, with Kurtz and Wilson being rookies. Either one of those guys would make good ROY candidates, but as I said, I want to take about Nick Kurtz. Kurtz is 6-foot-5 240 lbs. at just 22 years old. In just 85 career games, he’s tallied 25 homers, 23 doubles, 67 RBIs, 45 walks, a .313 average a 1.044 OPS and a WAR of 4.1.

And we haven’t even talked about THAT game! On July 25th against the Houston Astros, Kurtz made history. He went 6-6 with 4 home runs, a double and 8 RBIs in a 15-3 Athletics victory. The most ridiculous stat about that night is this, per Opta Sports:

Nick Kurtz is out here making it look easy. As of writing this, Kurtz is the odds-on favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, and for good reason.

NL Rookie of the Year: (Early Season Prediction – Drake Baldwin)

Speaking of odds-on favorites, let’s talk about Drake Baldwin. I nailed this one. This is the only prediction from the early season post that I’m sticking with. The 24-year-old catcher made the Opening Day roster. He was believed to be the backup catcher once the veteran Sean Murphy returned from injury. But, short of a hot start immediately upon returning from the IL, Murphy’s season has been forgettable, hitting just .207 in 84 games so far in 2025.

Eventually, thanks to a discerning eye in the batter’s box and plus defensive skills, garnering high praise from Chris Sale himself, Baldwin overtook Murphy as the primary catching option, also earning several DH opportunities when Murphy is behind the plate. The Braves have done whatever they could to keep their top prospect’s bat in the lineup, and he has rewarded them handsomely in his freshman campaign, hitting for a .278 average with 13 homers, 56 RBIs, and an on-base percentage of .344. Baldwin was also notched multiple game-winning hits for Atlanta. With a maturity beyond his years, Baldwin looks like he could have a long career ahead of him.

AL Manager of the Year: (Early Season Prediction – Alex Cora)

Alex Cora’s Red Sox have had a good year, currently holding on to the second Wild Card spot in the American League. After a rocky start to the season, the Red Sox have recovered nicely and currently boast a 68-59 record going into play on August 20th. Unfortunately for Alex Cora and the Red Sox, they’re being outshined by a team in their own division.

Updated Prediction: John Schneider

For the few years, during the Guerrero Jr./Bichette era, we’ve talked about the Blue Jays underachieving. The offseason was rife with reports of Bo Bichette not being happy and wanting out. Trade rumors were everywhere. Then, in April, the Jays signed Vladdy Jr. to a 14-year $500 million contract extension. At the time, I sat up on the podcast and said that by extending Vladdy to that massive contract, they had reached a fork in the road. I asked the question, “That money has been spent, that commitment has been made, now what are you going to do to make it worth it?”

Well, the Blue Jays responded. Bo Bichette is having a career year. Vladdy Jr. is earning that contract. The latter has and OBP just a couple ticks shy of .400. They’re also getting production from all over the lineup, something they haven’t been able to do in years past.

The Jays have the 3rd-best record in all of Major League Baseball behind the Milwaukee Brewers and the Detroit Tigers. How have they done it? They lead the entire league in team batting average, a full 10 points ahead of the second place Milwaukee Brewers, they lead the league in hits by almost 60, and on the pitching side, they are 3rd in the league in strikeouts. Plus, if you had told me when they signed Anthony Santander that he’d hit .179 in 50 games before going on the 60-Day IL with a shoulder injury, and the ENTIRE rest of the lineup would step up, I wouldn’t have believed you!

The Blue Jays seem have finally put it together and manager John Schneider deserves credit for that. You might ask, “If the Tigers have a better record than the Blue Jays, why aren’t you predicting AJ Hinch as Manager of the Year?” Simple: in my opinion, surprise is an important factor in this particular award. AJ Hinch led the Tigers to the postseason last year. That was the surprise. Coming into this year, the postseason was an expectation. Maybe being this good wasn’t quite expected, but the postseason was. The blue Jays have been pretty average in recent years, so this really wasn’t expected. From average to top-tier is a big jump, making John Schneider the ideal candidate.

NL Manager of the Year: (Early Season Prediction – Bob Melvin)

This one is the most disappointing. The Giants got off to a good start, looking like a shoo-in for the Postseason, even in the top-heavy NL West. But quite frankly, the Giants have fallen apart. They’ve gone 10-23 since July 8th and are near the bottom in almost every offensive category. The pitching staff has continued to do its job led by perennial Cy Young candidate Logan Webb, but pitchers don’t score runs.

Updated Prediction: Pat Murphy

This one’s as open-and-shut as the American League for all the same reasons. But before I get into that, I do want to give a shoutout to a few deserving managers. Mike Schildt, Craig Counsell, and Terry Francona have done admirable jobs in San Diego, Chicago and Cincinnati respectively, but Pat Murphy is lapping the rest of the National League in Milwaukee.

The offense is 2nd in runs scored, 2nd in team batting average, and 2nd in on-base percentage, while the pitching staff is 3rd in team ERA, 4th in batting average against, and 7th in WHIP. Milwaukee is probably the most complete team in the league and a major championship contender.

The Brew Crew was quietly one of the best teams in the Majors a year ago in Murphy’s first year, but this year, they’re a lot louder. They’re way out in front in a tough NL Central that could see three teams reach the Postseason. They’ve had win streaks of 8 or more games three times this season, the last two of which reached double digits. This team doesn’t appear to have a weakness. They only question that remains is: can they sustain it in October?

AL Most Improved Player: Maikel Garcia

Yes, I know that Major League Baseball does not have a Most Improved player, but I’ve long thought they should.

With a 75 OPS+ in 2024, Maikel Garcia ranked 128th out of 129 hitters who logged enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Garcia hit .231 in 626 plate appearances with 39 extra base hits, 7 homers and a 1.2 WAR, while still remaining the Royals’ everyday third baseman.

Garcia rebounded this season, doubling his OPS+ (130), hitting for a .302 in 5014 plate appearances with 49 extra base hits, 12 homers and a 4.2 WAR. The Royals haven’t had the season they’d hoped for, but they’re getting hot at the right time, standing just 2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot with 26 games to go. With a month to add to his impressive turnaround season, Garcia figures to be a major piece to Kansas City’s quest for October.

NL Most Improved Player: Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers is having a year in 2025, but in order to be on this list, we must first look at his 2024 season. Prior to this season, Stowers spent parts of 3 seasons as a role player between Baltimore and Miami. In 2024, he posted a 67 OPS+, in 209 plate appearances with a .208 average 16 extra base hits and 3 homers, finishing with a -0.5 WAR.

Fast forward to 2025 and the 27-year-old Stowers has blossomed into a star in Miami in his first full season. So far, he’s put up a 149 OPS+, in 457 plate appearances with a .288 average 49 extra base hits and 25 homers, finishing with a 3.5 WAR. The Marlins may not be a playoff team, but Stowers has emerged as a great player all the same.

Biggest Suprise

I’ve mentioned them already, but the biggest surprise of 2025 is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew is arguably the most complete team in the Majors ranking in the top 10 in almost every major category, top 5 in others. The continued ascent of William Contrares as one of the league’s best catchers along with the rising stardom of rookie pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, as well as Freddy Peralta leading MLB in wins, Milwaukee is a force to be reckoned with. We knew they were good – we didn’t know they were THIS good.

Biggest Disappointment

If you’ve followed along this season, this shouldn’t surprise you, but the biggest disappointment has been the Atlanta Braves. They’ve played better as of late, winning 10 of their last 12 games, thanks to Michael Harris II hitting .402 in the last month and a 1.145 OPS since the All-Star break (2nd in MLB), but it’s likely too late. That same Harris II ranked last in the entire league among qualified hitters with a .551 OPS.

Combine the dreadful first half with serious injuries to their entire Opening Day starting rotation, multiple IL stints for stars Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr., and 80-game PED suspension to Atlanta’s only significant offseason acquisition, and most importantly, the complete apathy of their manager who all but announced his impending retirement after an 0-7 start and has largely been mailing it in ever since, it’s been a season to forget in the ATL. A team that many believed to be a World Series favorite has instead limped to mediocrity. If there’s anything to hang their hat on going into 2026, it’s that Harris II appears to be back in his Rookie of the Year form, and even though two of the three will be returning from major injuries, Atlanta will have a trio of talented young pitchers in Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep to anchor the rotation for years to come. It’s the little things…